September 24, 2025
During World War II, statistician Abraham Wald changed the way the Allies reinforced bombers by exposing survivorship bias. His insight offers a powerful lesson for hotel revenue managers: true success comes from analyzing all data, including what’s missing, and adapting strategies continuously.
During World War II, Allied bombers faced devastating losses. Researchers mapped bullet holes on planes that returned from missions, noting heavy damage to the wings, fuselage, and tail. The initial recommendation was to reinforce these areas with more armor.
But this approach failed. Abraham Wald, a Hungarian-Jewish statistician working with the U.S. military, realized the flaw: the analysis only considered surviving planes. Aircraft hit in the engines or cockpit didn’t return at all, so their data was missing.
Wald advised reinforcing the areas with few or no bullet holes—the most vulnerable components that determined whether a plane survived. This counterintuitive solution dramatically improved bomber survival rates and reshaped military strategy.
The lesson? Look beyond the obvious, account for missing data, and challenge assumptions. The same principles apply to hotel revenue management today.
Like the engineers who overlooked downed aircraft, hoteliers risk misreading their data. For example, periods of low bookings, underperforming room types, or weak segments may be hidden vulnerabilities that erode revenue.
By analyzing historical booking patterns, competitor rates, and demand shifts, revenue managers can uncover gaps and opportunities to strengthen performance where it matters most.
Wald’s insight required a shift in strategy: reinforce the unseen vulnerabilities, not the obvious ones. For hotels, the equivalent is adapting pricing and distribution strategies based on where losses or missed opportunities occur.
That might mean:
The key is adaptability, guided by evidence—not assumptions.
Just as engineers used combat data to inform reinforcement decisions, hoteliers must rely on analytics tools to guide revenue strategies.
An integrated RMS (Revenue Management System) connected to PMS, CRM, and channel managers provides:
Data doesn’t just guide; it drives optimization.
Wald’s work highlights the importance of refining strategies over time. The Allies initially misinterpreted their data but corrected course when new insights emerged.
For hoteliers, continuous improvement might include:
Revenue management isn’t static—it’s iterative.
The most powerful lesson is mindset. Wald challenged conventional wisdom by asking not “where are the bullet holes?” but “where aren’t they?”
Revenue managers must do the same:
Hotels that adopt this mindset are better positioned to adapt, optimize, and thrive in a competitive market.
Abraham Wald’s insight into bomber survivorship bias saved lives and influenced military strategy. The same principle—recognizing missing data, adapting based on insights, and continuously refining strategy—is at the heart of modern hotel revenue management.
By embracing analytics and a data-driven mindset, hoteliers can optimize revenue potential, protect long-term rate integrity, and stay competitive in an ever-evolving marketplace.
