Hotter summers aren't emptying the Mediterranean peak. They're repricing it.

Guests still come in July and August

If heat were pushing travellers out of the peak, July and August would carry a shrinking share of each summer's stays in hot markets and a stable one in cool markets. That is not what we see. In Southern Europe, July and August made up 41.6% of May–September room nights in 2023 and 40.1% in 2026. The UK moved by almost exactly the same amount, from 41.7% to 39.9%. Spain on its own went from 40.3% to 40.7%.

The one exception is Portugal, where the peak share fell 6.5 points, mostly between 2023 and 2024. With 25 properties, that is worth watching but not yet a trend. Measured from 2024 instead of 2023, Southern Europe's peak share actually rose slightly. In Spain's hottest regions, the share of each month has stayed within a narrow band for four years.

The summer premium has flipped

The change shows up in what guests pay. In 2023, a night in July or August at our hot-south Spanish properties cost 4% more than a night in May, June or September. In 2026 it cost 9% less. Shoulder-month rates rose fast: May by 34%, June by 26% and September by 30%. July and August rose by 13%.

The flip is specific to hot markets. Spain as a whole went from a 6% summer premium to a 5% discount, and Greece's premium shrank from 39% to 12%, though on only 9 properties. In the cooler markets, the premium held or grew: the UK's rose from 7% to 13%, and Canada's stayed at about 23%.

Why price moved before demand

Our data shows what happened, not why. Three explanations fit it, and they are not exclusive.

• The shoulder months stopped being off-season. Demand held up across the whole season, so May, June and September could carry higher rates without taking share from the peak.
• Heat caps what guests will pay in August. A city break at 40°C is worth less to many travellers, even if they still come because school and work calendars leave no choice.
• Hoteliers are pricing what they see. Properties that track demand closely raised shoulder rates as those months strengthened, instead of following last year's calendar.

The summers behind the data

• July 2023. Athens closes the Acropolis in the afternoons with temperatures forecast above 40°C. About 19,000 people, mostly tourists, are evacuated from wildfires on Rhodes.
• August 2025. Spain's most intense heatwave on record lasts 16 days. By mid-August wildfires have burned more than 343,000 hectares in Spain, a record.
• Summer 2025. Spain's hottest summer on record, at an average of 24.2°C.
• Summer 2026. A new record at 24.5°C, with 61 heatwave days against a previous high of 41.

What it means for hoteliers

• Stop pricing May, June and September as off-season in hot markets. At our hot-south Spanish properties, those months now earn more per night than August.
• Check your own summer premium. Divide your July–August average rate by your May, June and September average. If it has fallen below 1, your calendar has already changed.
• Don't plan for an exodus from the peak yet. Guests still arrive in July and August. Protect occupancy there rather than emptying it with high prices.
• Cooler markets have room to charge for summer. In the UK and Canada, the summer premium held or grew.

Method and limits

We built a same-store panel: properties with room nights in every month from May to September in each of 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026. That gives 90 properties in Spain, 25 in Portugal, 9 in Greece, 37 in the UK, 8 in Ireland and 45 in Canada. Shares use room nights by stay date. Rates are revenue divided by room nights, compared within each currency. A stricter panel, which drops properties with very small or very volatile months, gives the same conclusions.

• Our sample leans towards city hostels and independent hotels, which have flatter summers than beach resorts. Salamanca alone accounts for 22 of the 90 Spanish properties.
• Greece, Ireland and the Canary Islands have fewer than 10 properties each, so their results are only indicative.
• Room nights at a few large UK and Irish properties fell sharply in 2026, which makes those 2026 figures less reliable.
• We measure stays, not when guests booked them.